Executive Summary

Solar PV is being deployed in part to reduce dependence on fossil fuels for electricity use and associated emissions of greenhouse gases and criteria pollutants such as nitrous oxides (NOx) and sulfur dioxide (SO2). Given the time-varying output of photovoltaic (PV) equipment, and the diverse set of electric generators in the power plant fleet, there is considerable uncertainty as to the actual benefits of PV in various regions.

This report uses a production cost modeling approach to evaluate the large scale interaction of solar electricity technologies with the existing and possible future grid, with a focus on displaced generation capacity, fuel saved, and emissions avoided by deploying varying levels of solar electric generation. This study established a PV penetration scenario in several regions in the western U.S. grid (the Western Electricity Coordinating Council – WECC) and simulates the response of the power plant fleet. While focusing on avoided fuels and emissions that result from PV deployment, this analysis also identifies areas of future research to increase understanding of benefits and impacts of large-scale PV deployment.